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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  January 5, 2018 6:00am-9:00am EST

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live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. good morning welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. the december jobs report is due at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. the non-farm payrolls are forecast to have risen by 180,000. that would come after a 228,000 gain in november the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 4.1% plenty of people see a drop into 4% we'll talk about that today. in the meantime, look at the u.s. equity futures. if you thought there would be a pull back after the first three days of the year where we have seen phenomenal numbers come out, you would be wrong. three days of trading, and all
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the averages passed a major number on tuesday, the nasdaq passed 7,000. on wednesday, tyesterday the do hitting 25,000 for the first time ever. this morning the dow futures are indicated up by 75 points s&p futures up by 7 1/2. nasdaq up by 30. the first trading week of the year on that time we are talking about some strong days the best three-day winning streak to start the year for the nasdaq since 2006, for the s&p since 2010 of course we always talk about what happens in january often indicates what happens for the full year. we'll talk all about this throughout the program today green arrows across the board. let's look at asia the nikkei ended up by 0.9% a gain of 208 points
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23,714 hang seng up by 0.25%. the shanghai up by 0.2%. in europe, you will see also same story there up across the board. the biggest gainer being the dax, which is up by more than 1.1% >> quick update to a security flaw that may have exposed some smartphones and pcs to hackers really did in a big way. intel is sending out software updates that will make its processors immune to the meltdown in spectre vulnerabilities that have the technology world in a frenzy at the moment it hopes to have updates for 90% of its processor products by the end of next week separately apple already weighing in on the threat. the company report there's a all mac and ios devices, iphone, ipads, macbooks affected by those security flaws, but the most recent software update
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protects users against the meltdown atakmelt jo meltdown attack but not against the spectre flaw apple and amazon -- yesterday we mentioned the fear was not only this exploit but the only way to correct it would be to use software that would slow the chips down by a third. apple, amazon and others and google -- google found the flaw originally they said the software patches put in place do not degrade the performance of the chips billboard reporting that jimmy iovine could leave his role this summer he joined apple as part of its 3 $3 billion purchase of beats back in 2014
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former uber ceo travis kalanick, this is fascinating news, he's reportedly selling nearly a third of his 10% stake in the company for 1$1.4 billion the sale is said to be part of broader investment deal led by softbank the sale is set to be part of a broader investment deal left by softbank the consortium is buying shares from early investors and employees to take a 17.5% stake in the company because of this i'm of two views. if you know travis, he's somebody who i was convinced he genuinely believed this company was not a $48 billion company or a $68 billion company, but 100 billion, 2$200 billion company having said that, he can still have that view and be frustrated with management, be frustrated with where he is, or you could
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say that's the cherry on top we'll let that ride. >> if he still has that much of it, and he's been frustrated >> i will take my 1.4 billion and i may compete against you. >> so there's lots of shades of gray of people trying to assess his motivations. >> back to the markets president trump taking some time to tout the dow crossing 25,000. >> we broke a big barrier, breaking 25,000. some said we wouldn't break 25,000 by the eighth year. we're in the 11th month and we crossed 25,000 i have to be careful because maybe as i walk out it goes down you always have to be careful with that, tom but we did, in fact, break 25,000 substantially break it. easily so i guess our new number is 30,000 but what it means is that every time you see that number go up on wall street, it means jobs. it means success
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it means 401(k)s flourishing >> if i could pick someone to summarize this i was thinking about it, there's a lot of people, a lot of people we could choose from. but there's only one i would want a lot of times people mistake -- you never know with someone, sometimes they're sarcastic. i was talking with my wife, dom chu makes any story come alive come alive, no matter what >> not just the love i have for you, but also for penelope she's an unbelievable person i love her, she's a fantastic wife, fantastic person in general. >> that's nice, dom, but your golf swing annoys me >> my golf swing annoys a lot of people >> you know why it does? because of the way you transition have the hitch at top. >> no, you don't it's butter. it reminds me of someone who has
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practiced a lot. that's the key if you can come from here, accelerate into the hitting zone, what's your handicap a 4? >> i'm higher than a 4 >> ask him how many games he played last year >> how many rounds last year >> did becky ask that? >> yes, she did. >> did my wife put her up to that. >> i'm in cahoots with your wife >> she's been talking to megan >> how many rounds did you play? >> what can he do with the baby? >> help out with the diaper. >> it's your job -- >> oh. >> whoa. >> guys -- this is what i meant. you are the -- you are the nurturer you're the one with the food you're the one with the food >> i want him out of the house get him out of the house and go. >> talk your way out of this one. >> if i wasn't wearing so much makeup now, i would be turning
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bright red so you know >> i might be in trouble for that that's not what i meant. i met you're useless around the house, the mother is the -- with an infant -- >> very useful >> i just -- >> this "squawkward" moment has been brought to you by joe kernen >> it has. any way, i am here, i thank you for the kind words appreciate the fact when it comes to the market tidbits, i can join you to deliver interesting stats. the interesting part about this whole 401 discussion, is that people are seeing ira's and 401(k)s go up in value because of a number of stocks. in the dow it's five stocks specifically that have driven the bulk of the gains between that move from dow 20,000 to 25,000 5,000 point move, almost 900 points of that is just boeing
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alone. a stock that's near record highs. boeing a blistering run. united health group contributed 429 points caterpillar stock also on a tear, any record highs, 44407 points points 3m, 400 points and home depot, almost 400 points some stocks have lagged. check out some of these names. merck dragged about 27 points off the dow in that time span. general electric, no surprise there, that big drop last year, shaved 82 points off big blue ibm shaved 114 points off. >> as we talk about whether or not the dow will be driven towards the next milestone, some of these guys will have to pull more weight. later on in the show, i'll tell you about what dow stocks could
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be the ones that do drive us to the next milestone numbers like president trump was eluding to back over to you >> yeah. i'm getting a lot of mail because i -- because of what i've been talking about during this show. that is that people who didn't think this market was going up, they are now saying -- it's criticism that people own the stocks, it's not main street it's not always a proxy, the stock market, for the underlying economy. i would say when the fed is at zero and asset prices are rising, but we saw the income inequality got worse, but it's different at this point. it's a proxy for gdp, for jobs getting -- for the job market getting good enough to where people can start getting jobs they want. not part-time jobs start getting raises
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>> i hope you're right, but i don't think we're there yet. >> i know you don't, but you didn't think mcdonald's ce work osh ceo would be doing anything. >> the rally -- >> every 1,000 points was the last 1,000 as it happened i hope you weren't responsible for anyone who bailed out early. i wouldn't want to have that on my -- >> i'm saying you're now saying this is bleeding over into the real economy the question is how much does it bleed into the real economy? >> not bleed in. this is a reflection of what's happening in the real economy. >> that's the question >> my point was, i went back to the '80s if you're young, you sort of have been conditioned to believe the past eight years is normal that 2% is good. these are the best -- >> people are telling us it's the new normal >> in the late '70s it was worse. we had 18% interest rates.
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we had oil prices. suddenly -- >> lines around the corner >> you get a pro private sector administration coming in, living through that period, i want to live through another period like that it's possible. >> let me make this one observation. if you think the market is a reflection of the real economy, okay, and you think about what happened in the last year in the real economy, it's very difficult to give, dare i say, the president credit for the real economy in the last year because he only got here in the past year. so your whole argument makes no sense. >> that's not true deregulation -- not only that. >> i'm saying -- hopefully it will bleed into the economy in the future >> companies have already factored in -- this last year they factored in the pro positive pro business. the deregulation, the tax cuts how many times have you said the tax cuts are in the market
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the question has been have they been in the market >> i don't think they have been. >> let's say they haven't been either they are or they aren't you have to make some decisions. either the economy was on a path to be pretty good prior to last november >> no one is denying that. >> or not. >> no one is denying the global -- >> nobody is denying that? >> nobody is denying the global any economy is is growing. not going to down 5,000 for you would be a victory >> a lot of people thought the -- >> tell me what you thought. i know you hang it on other people i didn't argue with you every day for the last -- >> i thought the market would struggle in the initial weeks, and then i thought people would sat with you -- >> i sat with you every day for the last year.
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>> let's go. >> let's bring in -- let's bring in -- what was the train argument about leaving the station? what was that about? not getting on that. when i kept telling you to get on the train you kept saying i'm not. >> and i missed the train. that was about the market. not about where the real economy is >> let's bring in two economists who can tell us about this michelle girard is here, managing director at natwest markets. jim o'sullivan is from high frequency economics. welcome. we want to hear what you think about the jobs report what are we looking at in the real economy? >> i do think the economy has gained a lot of momentum i do agree with joe, in the sense that we got more from the tax package than i thought we would get. >> in terms of details >> in terms of details,
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accelerated depreciation and along the lines of the regulatory relief that companies have gotten this year, they also have set the stage for the economy performing much better in 2017 than i would have expected in an uncertain environment. i would have worried economies in particular might have moved to the sidelines to wait and see what would come. that didn't happen i think the passing of the tax plan and its policies, as you talked about, this idea that people said new normal we can't grow better than 2% this i think will shows that you it wasn't structural as much as it was in many ways just bad policies the removal of that, i think, will set the economy on a better growth path. >> what did think was possible with corporate rate? 25, 26 you were on record that's all we could do, 25, 26 is 21 much better than what you said we were age to do >> i thought we would land --
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that was more about the political guessing around -- >> i know what that was. >> i would contend this particular plan that we've set up long-term -- we had larger conversations about this >> we heard your side. >> was do you think, jim, where the economy stands now >> if you measure by gdp, we picked up a bit. the last year about 2% or so 2.5% the last year previous year was 1.8. there's been acceleration. it's not booming by any means, but in this cycle it's more than enough to keep the unemployment rate coming down the unemployment rate is 4.1 a year ago, 4.7. the trend will continue to be going down >> let me ask this question. some people are saying we're hitting the point where good news is going to be bad news if you get down to an unemployment rate that falls below 3%, the fed will have to
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jump in and hike rates four times this year. >> we won't wait until below 3%. below 4% perhaps they will tighten four times next year. does that matter in terms of what that impact has -- i know you're not a market strategist does that slow down the market and potentially the economy? >> i would think to the extent higher bond yields are part of the story as well, that's got to be some relative negative for the equity market. but ultimately if bond yields are going up, not just the funds rate, because you look at the last year, the funds rate went up 75 basis points, the bond market has not done much that has to be key. in turn, you go to the next step, inflation is key gdp was better than expected, unemployment fell more than expected inflation after going up there 2016 came down in 2017 >> michelle, let's talk about
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inflation. is this the boy who cried wolf where people wait for it, or will we not see it >> i am -- if anyone was going to be looking for higher inflation, it would be myself. i think the fed has kept rates too low for too long in general. even i don't see real risk of inflation overshoot. consumer price inflation is not where easy money is showing itself i think we'll get firmer wage growth i don't think it will put upward pressure on inflation. i think we'll get to 2%. i don't see us moving much over that that gets back to the idea that the fed can continue to move gradually. four times this year sounds like a lot. the fed did just as much, especially if you take into account the change in the balance sheet policy they're moving at that same pace itquity market back that's key on inflation. without signs of an inflation overshoot. i don't think this market gets worried about the fed taking policy past neutral. >> it would be a lot to hope for
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for multiple expansion if you can keep multiples where they are -- >> but if earnings -- >> if you keep multiples where they are, even if they contract a little bit with earnings then i look at there could be a good reason that rates are at 3%, 4%, there could be a bad reason if they just tighten for no reason, you're at 4% when you should be at 2, that's one thing. historically, 3% or 4% is conducive to business activity >> we used to say, too, a lot of times companies were uncertain when rates were so low what would happen when rates normalized in some ways removing that uncertainty. >> that might help >> seeing if the economy can continue to function in an environment where rates are at more normal levels, in some ways that may make companies more willing to bet on future activity being -- >> hurry up and do this while you still have low interest rates. >> i didn't read the buffett piece.
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i saw a news aggregate that buffet said there was years of growth to come >> i didn't see that >> you guys have to go, before you do, jobs number today? >> continued strength. 210,000 of payrolls. more than enough to keep the unemployment rate coming down. >> same. 200,000. hourly earnings will be a touch firmer year over year, 2.5. you have a combination of healthy job market that's a nice combination. >> appreciate it >> coming up -- >> hold on relax. you saw it it's drudge. i didn't say -- i said newsing a gra news aggregation it was in "time. go ahead go knock yourself out take us to break >> you go. you go for it. >> now i know you want to. >> okay. >> fine. coming up, president trump tweeting about the markets and
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the controversial new book that is shaping up washington axios executive editor mike allen joins us next.
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welcome back the publisher of "fire and fury," the new book about the
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trump white house moved the release date from tuesday to today. the publisher said unprecedented demand yesterday called for early release date the publisher confirmed receipt of a cease and desist letter and said forget about it, we're going with publication of the book saying bring it on president trump tweeting i authorize zero access to white house. actually turned him down many times for author of phony book i never spoke to him, book full of lies, misrepresentations and sources that don't exist look at this guy's pass and watch what happens to him and sloppy steve sloppy steve being steve bannon. axios reporting that trump is fielding advice for 2020 strategy joining us for all of this and
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more is mike allen from axios. good morning >> andrew, happy jobs day. >> thank you let's break down the distinction between the truths in this book and to the extent that there are misrepresentations, omissions, and/or errors. there's lots of questions, some of this is getting conflated you address that this morning. >> thank you it seems like the white house is doing everything it can to sell this book. this is a publisher's life long dream to have the president of the united states trying to issue a prior restraint on your book in axios this morning we said the president should see the movie "the post. there's michael wolff's methods that people question and specific anecdotes that people
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have questioned and mind not end up too well in a fact check, but we point out in axios am today is that what michael wolf is good at is capturing some of the broader observations about how this white house works and just as importantly how the staff regards him. so the ecosystem rather than specifics what have we learned a couple things. one is that a lot of the staff, even key staff members who you see on tv defending him and promoting him think that he's erratic and that he has been ill-prepared for the job a couple of michael wolff's takeaways with the contradictions that is that the president is convinced of his instincts. but they keep chaipg inging, an likes generals around him but doesn't like being told what to do >> my question having read the excerpts of this now, a number
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of people in the white house are quoted in this book saying relatively nasty things about the president. some of them have come out publicly and said i didn't say those things but there seems to be some ring of truth or general sense that maybe at least privately they have some lesser positive -- less positive things to say. how is this changing the dynamic in the white house we keep talking about who will come and go over the next six months, now that we've passed a year in the presidency what do you think will happen? >> so these observations are congruent with what we've heard from top staff over the months michael wolff has dozens of hours of tapes he has so many tapes of conversations with top officials that it became a management problem to deal with all the tapes. now people are trying to say
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they didn't say it often when you push them on that, they're more like i hope i didn't say it. i don't think i said it. because they're not sure exactly what tapes are out there the surprising thing is that whether you think you're off the record or not, and in many cases these people thought they were off the record, and they're quoted by name in the book a lot of white house veterans have said if you're this close to a president, you don't say these things off the record. it just shows the frustration inside the white house and michael wolff became the therapy. i mentioned the long tail becoming a short tail problem, that is departures the white house always thinly staffed. but now half a dozen axios is reporting this morning, half a dozen people, important
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staffers, who are contemplating leaving soon, and there's little indication they'll be replaced by people of similar stature >> you're talking about people we would know the names of if you mentioned them >> sure. we talked on the show about how the economic advisor, gary cohn might well go. next week is the final week, thursday is the last day for the deputy national security adviser, diana powell who your viewers know from her goldman sachs days other top people who said when they went in that it would be a year it's past that that's the dilemma for this white house. you get to a year, you're always going to have a lot of people leaving. even in the happiest, best functioning white house you will have people leaving. >> mike -- >> now you have more >> like you say, there's one individual that may be more on the record than others, i forget her name, i don't know if she
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can stay >> katie walsh >> she might already be gone >> consider this, i know you think in nuances i needled a couple of my friends that are on a certain side of the aisle, they hated bannon always hated him more. they think he's like a sociopath that will take a white supremacist -- they're in a weird position of hating him so much they almost had to defend tru trump. i'm like this is a weird dynamic. the enemy of my enemy. i'm like you will have to end up on trump side. then i look at the fallout trump looks bad when you read all this stuff but bannon is the one that the mercers are like, whoa, this guy is radioactive breitbart talking about they're bored, supposedly saying we want to distance ourselves from this. bannon almost conjured up sympathy for trump in a warped way.
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he almost looks like he will end up getting the short end of the stick more than trump does on this >> that's all right. axios is reporting that steve bannon may be oust the from breitbart over this. my topic yesterday was the monsters they continue control this is the similarities between the president and steve bannon it's related to the point that you're friends on that certain side of the aisle were making. the president and trump both created a monster they can't control. president trump gave steve bannon a platform he never would have imagined without his ties to the president, he would have been a nationalist radio host. on the other hand steve bannon will tell you he helped turn donald trump, whatever he thought of him, into president trump. now they both -- i can report they have talked since steve
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bannon left the white house. it was a little bit of a truce now this is, of course, divorce, no question. people go in and out of favor in trump world. hard to see that tie ever occurring again here >> there's a lot of people -- what i read in the excerpts from this book, not much different than what i heard on "morning joe. i already thought all this, demented, i already seen it all. it's almost more of the same we've seen this narrative for almost a year on cable channels, right? maybe a little different >> yeah. what we see in the book is the dynamic between staff and the president. the president resisting taking in information this is another one of those contradictions michael wolff reporting the
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president doesn't really read or skim but also doesn't sometimes listen the truth is the president will listen if he thinks you're worthy, and one of the ways that you're worry in the president's eyes is if you're a successful business person. >> all right they're playing us out >> thank you >> thank you, sir. have a great weekend >> when we come back, hacking america. two new security vulnerabilities affecting those smamost smartphd pcs. we'll tell you what to do to protect your data, we hope "squawk box" will be right back.
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♪ welcome back you're watching "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. intel's newly discovered security flaws are raising concerns for individuals and corporations alike joining us now to elaborate on what is named the meltdown and the spectre vulnerabilities is james foster from zero fox thank you for being here today >> good morning, thanks. >> i'm hearing from a lot of places this is a big deal, one that we should be concerned about. explain the difference between the two threats. >> you're right, it's a really big deal it affects almost every computing device in the world. it affects devices that intel built platforms for. since 1995 so good news is if your computer
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ser older th is older than 1995, you're probably safe. >> nobody has a computer older than 1995. >> you hope so >> all modern computing platforms are vulnerable >> this is an architecture issue? >> this is an architectural hardware issue on top of these chips there's a problem that's been around for 20 years that malicious programs can read things that are happening on those chips >> the good news is most hackers have not known about this. the bad news is as quickly as industry is trying to fix this, hackers are now trying to figure out how to exploit it how worried should i be as a consumer >> you should be worried i'm not sure that hackers have not known about this behind the scenes you know, the google project, they have done a good job, one of their lead researchers is
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credited with making this mainstream typically what happens when a vulnerability is identified and goes mainstream, you start to see a fallout. so that could mean a few things. typically automated tools out there will exploit organizations. right now we're talking about a vulnerability. that's just the tip of the iceberg. the next thing we'll talk about in the coming months is new data breaches that happened because of this vulnerabilitiesibilivu y >> what shy be doiould i be doia business and consumer? >> as a consumer, keep patching your system if you get hit with a patch notice, do it. do it quickly. >> apple says that they've patched this stuff i tried to get my phone, i'm on ios 11.21, it's not the -- it says my software is up to date but that's not the latest one
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supposedly >> that's right. that's right it's hard to update the entire world from an apple perspective in 24 hours. >> so this goes on over a week how does this work >> it will start going out immediately. part of the apple fixes are not actually fixing the problem. apple came out and said they would update their browser because they believe the browser will be one of the biggest ways to exploit the vulnerability they're not fixing the problem, they're putting a band-aid around it. >> you say you believe people have known about this for quite some time. google publicly discovered it or privately discovered it. that's the other thing when did everybody get wind of this to start even building the patches? >> it appears the team at google did this the right way responsibility vulnerability disclosure so you tell the affect the parties what you found, give them time to fix it, but most of the time you tell them what you found, give them time to fix t
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six months later it's still not fixed and it becomes a mad dash. typically you hit that tip of the iceberg where you are starting to see problems in the wild, they can only stay confidential for so long what should companies be doing at this point? you have bigger concerns if your business is on the cloud or issues that sudden you need a fix for and there's no easy solution >> this is different this is different from some of the other breaches or problems that we've seen. i think part of this has to come back to how you write your contracts. i believe that what we'll see in the next 12, 24 morns s monthst cfos and general docounsels wil write contracts differently when moving to cloud. that liable shouability should o the business to the provider what's to be determined is will the cloud providers profit off of this we heard different
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sides stories that say some of these patches will make processors slower. so what happens there is if those processors are slower, i still need my applications to run, i have to buy more processing power you may see companies profit from this. >> real quick, brian krzanich sold some stock apparently after he heard about this or learned about this do you think that's a real problem or not >> i wasn't there. $50 million in stock sales sounds like a lot, but no idea >> we'll leave it there. president trump, we should tell you, tweeting the following. dow goes from 18,589 on november 9, 2016 to 25,075 today an all new time record. recorded fastest 1,000 point move in history. this is all about making america great again agenda
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jobs, jobs, jobs, $6 trillion in value created. coming up, barney frank will weigh in on the tax code overhaul. and then we'll find out how ind cheaper flights to somewhere warmer a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley
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welcome back to "squawk box. i'm contessa brewer at logan's international airport where things are picking up. delta had the first flight out at 5:30 this morning to detroit, but there are lingering effects that huge storm that swept through new england yesterday. let's call it a hangover of bombogenesis if you look at the departures board here now, you're seeing a lot of these delta flights are canceled throughout the day. let's go through your options, planes, trains and automobiles planes are iffy this morning check ahead if you're flying out of new york or boston or any major airport because we're seeing cancellation force arrivals trains, amtrak has a modified schedule this morning only a few trains
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were running between boston and new york and those are sold out. automobiles, the highways are mostly clear those major intersections may be cleaned up, but your local roads are a real problem in part because of the historic flooding that happened along the massachusetts coastline. it's going to be a long day of cleanup not to mention the roh.ive cold snap coming thug i'm contessa brewer. "squawk box" is back after this. when this bell rings... starts a chain reaction... ...that's heard throughout the connected business world. at&t network security helps protect business, from the largest financial markets to the smallest transactions, by sensing cyber-attacks in near real time and automatically deploying countermeasures. keeping the world of business connected and protected.
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>> it's january 5th. congratulations, anyone who made it to day five of their new year's diet. mine starts on monday, actually. nutrisystems is ringing the bell at the nasdaq to officially kick off -- you're known as a -- dan, this whole nutrisystem thing has been going on for so long, and you do look better thin. the before shots that they show of you, you look bad then you are almost as
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associated with nutrisystem as anybody, and it's been great for both you and nutrisystem because you look a lot better thin >> well, thanks, joe i appreciate that. you look better thin too when is the last time you took a commercial flight? what are you talking about you still fly commercial come on. >> yes, i do yeah, i do i missed the flight. i would have been on the show with you this morning, but sorry about that couldn't make it >> i know what you are thinking. >> you are the one flying around you are flying around private. i know that. >> dan, i know what you are thinking i'm going to stay in florida and play golf. you can't play today, can you? what's the temperature down there? >> it's, i don't know -- i think it's in the 40s or 50s >> that's not awful. that's like scotland or something. let's talk this is a great time of year for you, is it not new year's resolutions nutrisystems, you don't have to think. give me the food, and i'll eat it >> it's all about portion control. what i love is that the
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conversation is a great time for the weight loss industry as a whole because the conversation has really changed from vanity to health, which actually gives consumers more permission to spend on their health than just on the vanity aspect >> dan, does your -- is your weight like the stock market i mean, you're not always on nutrisystems are you how often do you go on it now? >> it's all about maintaining your weight, joe you know that. as far as -- actually, i do go on it a little bit yo i use the shakes that they have. the turbo shakes are for men you mentioned it earlier it's about keeping it simple that's what guys like. keeping it simple. have good food go ahead >> you drink the stuff how often do you do it >> once you lose the weight, that's the best part then it's about maintaining. the food is good >> how much mind share, when you are thinking about a diet, how
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much mind share during a given day are you having to think about how much you are eating, how much you've not eating, it are you hungry, not hungry this is what goes on in most people's minds when they are actually on the diet, and then, by the way, it becomes the same story when you are trying to maintain it to a lesser degree, but -- and then people get back up that's what happens. >> i think people think about food all the time and what they're going to eat when you are trying to lose weight. that's why we're not about counting calories or things like that we try to make it simple for people because simple and easy is what works. we all understand portions, we think, but we don't. we're usually doubling the normal portion in our head i think showing people what to eat is really helpful. >> showing them the portions >> exactly >> dan, you know, you said something, though. it's all about maintaining your weight that's my problem. i maintain this weight at a high level, which is not -- i think you misspoke you mean maintain -- once you
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lose it, you need to maintain it >> exactly i don't think i misspoke >> no, no. i just took it wrong i've been maintaining this weight >> once you lose the weight, it's about maintaining you know when it's good. that's the best way to do it maintain your weight that's why i was talking about the shakes it helps you >> mostly men don't diet as much as the average is, what, 15%, 20%? you have 30% >> we have a lot of men on our file, and i think dan has been with us for a long time. >> it's portion control, it's easy it's good for people with busy lifestyles we would love to cook all our meals, but the reality for both men and women is we don't have time that's why we have such an issue in the united states with weight we just don't have the time to cook and be healthy. >> we have 17 consecutive
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quarters of nutrisystem. i'm going on put that out there. dan, who do you look at that is in the -- who is your favorite in college and then who do you think looks good in nfl? you like that heisman trophy winner he lost to the guy in georgia who is a true freshman >> yes, but baker is a heck of a player he is exciting >> is he big enough? >> he is 6'5". i don't know how big he is actually i would say that drew brees is around 6 foot. heck of a player >> who do you like this year in -- i mean, they've got some playoffs this weekend, but then the real ones are next weekend, right? who do you like? >> i like the miami dolphins, but we're out of it. it doesn't really matter >> let's go for the patriots, dan. >> all right >> put on some saint andrews clothes. put some on scottish clothes thank you.
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>> good to talk to you guys. thank you so much. >> coming up when we return, job predictions ahead of today's big employment report. we're going to get the latest data from linkedn. squawk returns
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no another major milestone the dow crosses 25,000 for the first time ever. the record rally continues today it's the december jobs repo report from trade to iran and north korea. look at what's on tap with white house -- at the white house with former congressman barney frank. after yesterday's blizzard, a major cold snap is covering nearly 90% of the country. time to head to better weather if you can find it, but i don't
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really think it's in florida right now. it's cold down there too the ceo of flight pricing app hopper is here to help you warm up as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. >> live from the beating heart of business, new york city this is "squawk box." >> good morning. welcome back to "squawk box. i'm andrewross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernan. whatever this says now could change to the up side or down side we will see right now, though, it is trending to the up side in a big way. dow looks like it would open up about 84 points higher nasdaq would open about 31 points higher, and the s&p 500 would open about 7.5 points higher a couple of big headlines to bring you this morning the biggest perhaps, former uber ceo travis now planning to sell $1.4 billion of stock in his
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company. that's 29% of his stake. this is part of a tender offer you'll remember between soft bank and the ride sharing company. a source telling cnbc that he wanted to sell more than half of his stake, but that wasn't possible due to agreements between uber and its buyers. lots of people in silicon valley trying to understand what this means about the future of uber whether this is a vote of confidence or something very different from travis. we'll keep on this story in the meantime, the tech world still dealing with the security flaw that may have exposed smartphones and pc's to hackers. intel saying it's already started to second out software updates and makes processors immune to what's called the meltdown in specter vulnerabilities. apple reporting that old mac and ios -- many of which use intel chips, will be affected by the
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security flaws, but the recent software updates protects users against the meltdown attack. that's one down. there's a patch to its safari web browser against the second one. the specter flaws in the coming days if you have an iphone or ipad, hit settings, general, and see if you have the update available just yet it's going to take about 72 hours or a little longer the department store operator has now racked up 24 straight quarters of sales declines it's just one of those very sad stories. it says the stores will be closed between early march and early april, and it's like a straight training to nowheresville. i don't understand i don't understand what they're doing with this company. we've all been waiting for them. for years. it's just like -- the whole thing is crazy >> the countdown to the december jobs report is on. we're less than 90 minutes away from the number of the month
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steve liesman, the professor, joins us now yo >> this is a big day i have a question for you. >> yes >> is too much good news, could that be bad news for the market? >> we were discussing this last hour if it comes in too hot, as they say -- i thought i should ask you, does our new fed chairman say it's too hot, i have to slow things down, or. >> i tried to find another stretch. there is no other stretch of 87 straight months of job growth, and i went back to 1939. maybe -- i'm sure somebody will write in and find one, but from what i can tell looking at it this morning, and that's 228 it's a comedown, but who cares it's still 87.
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87 it's a come down from november, but who cares because it's still well above what people are -- unemployment rates seem unchanged. average hourly wages that will be a pretty decent number there's a very strong december adp payroll number 250 i want to show you the index of economic surprises, which goldman puts together, and the story here is that the economy has continued to surprise to the up side. the economists put out the estimates for what they think data will be, and then it comes in higher and goldman chronicles it in their index of economic surprises. joe, you don't want to give me a jim neighbors surprise, surprise, surprise, do you >> no. although the late great jim neighbors. >> that was the -- >> surprise, surprise, surprise. >> inflation at the fed. we don't know how jerome powell will react to the growth numbers, and also this coming stimulus for the tax cuts, is he
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happy with the >> now they're just starting to price in the third rate hike the december rate hike that number had been 20% or lower. >> but you alluded yesterday when we talked to you that we could be seeing four rate hikes, and that good news at some point might get to the point where it's bad news. >> if three is the favorite in this race, four is the second favorite i think you had sullivan on the show talking about three, and a lot of people are talking about the fourth rate hike it's whether powell sees these tax cuts as supply side, adding to the resources of the economy,
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keeping inflation down adding the productivity, or as you worried about the demand kick that's going to come from it and inflation and wage growth. i think he will take his time and be patient here. >> yeah. >> that's not you? >> i had it, but live tv, you know, write a script, but i don't have to deliver it >> we appreciate it. i would rather have honest conversation than someone reading a prompter, and you are great at that. >> thanks very much. >> if you write a paper for school or something, you really feel like you need to turn it in, don't you, if you put the time -- you just let that -- it goes off in the ether. >> he is going to use it again >> no, i won't >> oh, right >> after the data, my preview is no longer interesting.
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>> you'll be back at 8:00? >>. >> the dow blowing past the 25,000 level president trump taking some time out to tout the milestone. tout that's the word we use >> we broke a very, very big barrier. 25,000 there were those that say we wouldn't break 25,000 by the end of the eighth year it's the 11th month. i have to be careful we did, in fact, break 25,000. very substantially break it. very easily. i guess our new number is 30,000 what it means is every time you see that number go up on wall street, it means jobs, means success, it means 401ks that are flourishing.
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>> derek knutson it's got a k you say it lookout and say it proud. >> i love jan too. >> love jan. >> who has a k and you don't say it why have it? >> you have to flaunt it >> that's what eric does eric knutson >> loud and proud. >> chief investment officer at -- and michael dayton, chief u.s. economist at barclay's. how do we judge when it's too hot? i mean, can an employment number or an employment rate, unemployment rate, can it be too hot without inflation, or isn't that really the measure? >> that is the measure >> who cares then? >> well, you don't care until you start seeing the wages or the kind of above trend inflation. >> we want that to happen anyway with wages >> right the wage number is usually the last number that moves in the cycle. it is the sign that you have reached limits and things are -- >> in the past periods like this, how long can you be in a sweet spot for wage increases before it becomes something that
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hurts profit mashlgins can it help the underlying economy with consumers having more, and can it -- it's what we're striving for when does it turn into something we would characterize as a negative right away >> no. i think you can let it ride for a little bit i mean, given where inflation is and where the target is, you have some room four to six quarters >> yeah. how tall are you >> 6'8". >> the quarterback i was talking about with merino is 6'1". >> i can't play quarterback. >> it would be nice to be 6'8" brady is 6'5" or something snoo we're riding this for now normally we're forecasting on a four-month horizon in the meantime, we want to ride this momentum.
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we are trimming areas where we don't see as good of risk-return. corporate credit we don't think you have the up side there we would rather be down the cap structure, own equities, own, you know, emerging markets debt, mlp's where we can benefit from rising inflation really benefit from what's not quite priced in yet. >> you remember when -- what was the high wasn't it 38 or something? so it's 38 weren't we at ten? we were at 10,000 on the dow >> correct >> now we're at 25 they had a great year. of the naysayer about us say, well, japan is -- they're back to 27,000, 28,000. are we going to pass them, the dow? will we go above we're almost there we went for 10 and 25, and japan has gone back to 27 or so. >> that's not unreasonable for this coming year we would say, you know, when you look at the major indexes in the united states, we would be mid single digits. we don't necessarily want to own
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the s&p 500. we think that that is bias towards technology, more growth, more momentum. we would rather be biassed towards value, cyclical smaller caps >> all here. we had all sorts of people come on this set and say you got to put 20% more of your exposure towards -- you have to you have to get out of this country and stop thinking. bitcoin. >> u.s. might be up ten to 12. that might be -- emerging markets, you've got this
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dynamish of earnings growth, and better valuations. much more opportunity for improvement in earnings from here and from a quality standpoint you know, we are biassed towards emerging we're still long and strong in the u.s. just away from kind of the big cap indexes and towards financials, energy, small cap or cyclical names to benefit. we don't think it's fully priced in yet >> it's worth, i think, when the market is at 25,000 thinking harder about the down side risk. is that what's responsible for these collapsing spreads between the two-year and the ten-year? the two-year baking in these more rate hikes. ten-year saying, you know what, the fed messes it up.
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i think it's one of the tax cut and generate long run supply side, the facts, and the feds normalize for an environment where inflation has stuck below two. if you want to call that policy mistake, you're normalizing in a world where you are likely to bake in and calcify sub-2% inflation. >> what if the market is seeing better growth but not inflation? hey, we're going to do 2.5, 3. >> the fed wants the underlying current theme to be crappy so they can save us all the time. >> is there any way that that's right this time and that you get
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a really -- >> i went back and looked, joe december adp tends to be higher than -- it's a bad -- >> could this number be 300? >> remember -- >> is there anything happening >> it always has been. always will be >> after the market moves, if we got 3 opinion, that would be confirming everything. snoo a lot that's the whole thing i mean, long used by proprietary -- i thought of it in jernl it leads to better december sales nobody has more at stake in betting on december sales than the retailers who hired the people on to do the selling. that tends to be -- what you said about the bond market and what they think is going on in the real subcommittee. not the stock market
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>> right the bond market is saying we don't think the tax cut package -- in the way that raises potential growth, and it says that the fed is gradually normalizing into our world where inflation is sub 2%. minus 1% in core goods deflationary pressures -- and wage pressures that don't quite get you above. >> i'm not talking about andrew in this case, but there are a lot of people that now that the market has if gone up, it's like, damn, i wish -- now they're going to hang their hat on, well, maybe the economy doesn't really improve maybe that -- that will make everything better for -- >> there are two different messages coming from the markets. that's clear >> do you think the economy catches up with the stock market >> this year, yeah last year and this year. >> i think it's the other way around i think the stock market is built on really strong economic fujd fuj fundamentals think you've had two strong quarters at 3% growth.
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>> the reason we put -- it's so much more attractive is there's such low yields everywhere else in the world inevitably you are going to continue to have money flowing in when we can offer at 2.4% yield for government bond versus what you can get overseas. >> growth outside the u.s. accelerated last year, and a lot of our s&p multi-nationals are levered to that growth as well. >> those are the catalysts that can change our view from ride
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this momentum from risk assets to looking at what's the catalyst that can change this environment and so we're seeking to kind of reposition, shorten our duration, move towards inflation sensitive assets as rate sensitive assets. >> it's something people have been getting into. apparently the protection on the short end is cheaper >> yep, absolutely >> than 141.50 range >> it's still under two. >> gentlemen, thank you very much for being here. steve, we'll see you in a little bit. when we come back, more jobs drama. the linkedin work force report has gotten the attention of president trump in the past, and he has even tweeted about it the results of the latest survey talking about areas of the country showing strong jobs growth is next later, you want to get out of the cold on the cheapest flight you can find? we will speak to the ceo of hopper it's an app that accurately predicts airfare stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" here on cnbc (daniel jacob) for every hour that you're idling in your car, you're sending about half a gallon
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of gasoline up in the air. that amounts to about 10 pounds of carbon dioxide every week. (malo hutson) growth is good, but when it starts impacting our quality of air and quality of life, that's a problem. so forward-thinking cities like sacramento are investing in streets that are smarter and greener. the solution was right under our feet. asphalt. or to be more precise, intelligent asphalt. by embedding sensors into the pavement, as well as installing cameras on traffic lights, we will be able to analyze the flow of traffic. then that data runs across our network, and we use it to optimize the timing of lights, so that travel times are shorter. who knew asphalt could help save the environment? ♪
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hiring this past december, up over 24% compared to december of last year according to linkedin's latest work force report, that report also highlights hiring outperformance in some cities like houston and phoenix, which are outpacing new york and san francisco in terms of hiring growth rate. joining us right now to take us through the latest insights is linkedin editor in chief dan
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rotsendale let's talk about the headlines first. >> 20% growth in hiring year-over-year this is the same message every month in 2017 which is it's a great time to be in the job market if you are in most industries with good skill sets, and the industries that were hiring this month were the once that you would kbp to see if any kind of economic growth. it's construction, transportation, and then there was one surprise and also oil and energy, and there's one surprise which was financial services and insurance that was the largest gain of hiring in december, and it was likely because if you are unique claims adjusters >> let's talk about the sun belt states versus what we've seen in places like san francisco and new york is it too early to say that this is because it must be because the tax law wasn't in effect
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do you expect to see that exacerbated by the new tax plan which kind of penalizes some of the cities, some of the sun belt states >> you were just talking about this i think that the question of is there going to be wage growth? in a situation where there's no wage growth, you have to bring down your cost if you are not going to get extra money you move to the sun belt cities that are cheaper, that have lower taxes, and then the question -- >> you are talking about as an employee versus as a company >> exactly >> as for companies, it doesn't matter >> exactly >> i think then the tax law kicks in to solve problems, and i think it's just going to exacerbate the issue you will have people leaving the coasts, high tax states, and going to places. >> people follow jobs. do you think companies will leave so that their employees get relief is and go to some of the other places that are more easily attracting talent if you are getting essentially a pay raise. >> i'm not sure that the companies are going to make the job openings there, but ur auto going to see people looking for jobs in those cities if you have a wide range of
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skills that are easily transferrable, if you can take your web coating and c-plus-plus and take your health care skills and move them to phoenix or to austin, then -- or dallas, you're just going to do that it makes sense >> what do you think -- obviously these aren't questions that you have asked, but you follow these markets very closely. what do you think is a potential snag that could slow down hiring growth in either of the cities or across the country because we've been talking about how it's been great news and great news for so long, but is there a point where so much good news starts to concern people >> one of the highlight industries this entire year has been oil and energy. if oil prices start dropping, you are going to see a drop in hiring there that will have an impact on the overall numbers. i think that if people decide they can't move, it's going to have an impact on hiring also. while we talk about mieg rags, there is an issue because when people -- people have to have -- almost everyone has to have a two-income household these days you can't just move
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and expect your spouse to move with you and go fiend a job. you have to have a job -- >> that's an interesting point that is a really interesting point. scloo that's a problem you have a great job somewhere you have to find a job for the spouse as well >> having said that, those concerning points, that is not your baseline scenario for what we're going to see in 2018 >> the numbers are going to be harder to comp against >> dan, thank you so much. it's always great to see you >> coming up when we return, hbo out with some news for game of throne fans. details after the break. and barney frank will join us to talk policy and trade and more when "squawk box" retus.rn let's begin.
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>> i'm finding ways to annoy you. >> you are a terrible whistler we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. >> you going to do it? >> i can't do it now i'm talking. i found a way to whistle through every break. >> here are the stories that are front and center this morning. spotify announcing it now has 70 million subscribers. that is up from more than of 0 million back in july the music streaming company filed for an ipo earlier this week also, jimmy iovine could leave his role at apple this summer. iovine joined the tech giant as part of its $3 billion purchase of beats back in 2014. i'm sure we'll hear more about all of this. and fcc chairman of ajit pai cancelling his appearance after receiving death threats. that is according to recode. the fcc didn't comment on the nature of the threat pai has been hounded by critics, particularly on-line, over his vote to repeal net neutrality
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rules. remember, during that entire thing, there was a bomb threat called in to. >> it's not expected to put ut rules in. >> it's something worth watching and talking about. >> if you don't believe in climate change, you get death threats. it's like the left -- i'm telling you. legendary hedge fund manager david tepper is still bullish. during an interview yesterday the apple founder said explain to me where this market is rich. it's not rich with the tax thing
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that just changed earnings projections. with earnings forecasts going up and interest rates where they are, how is this market expensive? i don't see the overvaluation. world growth is higher there's no inflation the market coming into this year doesn't look rich. in fact, it looks almost as cheap as coming in to last year. which was a 30% year basically 24, 25 that's an amazing thing to say >> he has made amazing market calls at inflexion points. >> he came on the show the monday before the election asked to come on the show the monday before the election to trash trump about not being a personal giver in terms of charity. almost to try to, i don't know whether to sway the election, but to get his 2 cents in.
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>> he was not a fan. z >> hates him >> now it's -- you hold both views. you can decide that the president has been good for the stock market, but maybe -- >> not everyone can. >> i think they can. >> sorry to say. >> big news for the game of throne fans. hbo confirming that the eighth season will premier in 2019 with no specific date we do know now that the final season of game of thrones will be six episodes long and each episode will be closer to f feature length a lot to watch then. >> when we come back, we will hear from barney frank on the trump agenda right now, though, as we head to a break, take a look at how the u.s. equity futures are shaping up this morning. remember, it's been days of records every day this trading year so far. we saw the dow moving above 25,000 yesterday the day before that it was the s&p moving ahead, up 2,700 the day before that it was the nasdaq moving above 7,000.
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we will continue to watch this dow futures up by 80 points. we'll be right back.
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>> where do you think this is headed >> i have no idea? i think this is a case of reality being a lot harder for a sitting president to deal with than for a candidate you know, it is one thing that never should have happened i voted against it it's always easier to stop something in the first place than undo it that's what the president learned with health care
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so you have thisnetwork of existing interest and it's also the case that in american politics, people are more energized to protect an existing thing than they can be to get a benefit that hasn't yet come it's going to be a real as elt wi -- the other thing you have is mexican politics the question is what does mexico do if it were just an american-canadian deal, i think could you see this getting worked out namely, there is a dispute settlement mechanism, whereby national laws can be overridden by these tribunals that's been a very bad thing, and i would hope that we would get rid of that. >> go ahead. >> but the president has two obstacles where, the one is an uncooperative mexico, and some
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people are going to be telling him that if he presses too hard, he may wind up with the president of mexico that he very much doesn't like. he also has a mixed bag in the u.s. in the ag consuricultural . if he can't get a deal, he runs into a political storm here. >> the president tweeting this morning about the record run that the stock market has been on, and we've been having a debate this morning about the market and the real economy. how do you think about it? >> oh, i think it's a good thing. i think to some extent the market may have underestimated really -- one of the things i wanted to make good, there's no question, first of all, i go back to march 9, 2009. i remember that. that was a die we had a press conference the democrats in the house in which we talked about what we were going to do in terms of the regulation and it included, by the way, concerns about the short selling and things like
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the uptick rule. the market really began to go up on that day. it went up very significantly. with the advent of president trump, it's going to be up even more i think part of that -- i would like to note this, though. this market has gone up with virtually no changes in public policy i take some comfort in the result in that it's clear that the financial reform bill that i worked on, if that had been so terrible for the economy, where did all this growth come from? there had been no significant changes in that financial reform bill none there had been no significant changes in health care it turns out that the economy is able to be very, very vigorous with those two obama era policies in effect i think what happened was people had overestimated it and got themselves into a more negative thing than reality, and now they may have talked themselves slightly into an overestimate. i think the closely ranked and -- >> are you a believer, though, that this tax reform plan is
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going to unleash a whole new sense of growth? we're going to get the job numbers at 8:30 this morning >> well, it's clearly not going to affect the job numbers. >> not today >> well, here's my thing sure when you greatly increase the deficit as this bill does, you have a stimulative effect. john van kane said that, and my republican colleagues intermittently believe it. yes, i expect this to have something of a stimulative effect my concern is this there was a trade-off made the trade-off is, i think, that we will not get an infrastructure bill. i think an infrastructure bill would have been a much better way to deal with the economy both in a short-term stimulus and in a long-term productivity increasing thing sfw >> now, paul ryan would like to
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deal with that by cutting social security and medicare, and i would like to be able to eat more and not gain weight, and neither paul ryan or i is going to get our wish in that regard what i this i we've done is we've traded off a larger tax cut, which, yes, has a stimulative effect, but it also has a deficit increasing effect. we've traded that off for infrastructure, and infrastructure to me was not just for job creation, but when people talk about productivity, make it easier for goods and people to travel that does more for productivity than a lot of the theory >> we had nutrisystems on earlier. you should have been watching. it's possible it eat more. just depends on what it is you have been -- >> oh, i used to -- that's the kind of promise politicians make eat more and lose weight >> congressman always great to see you, babe. >> the ceo staffing giant l at thesound network and what he says is the best employment market in nearly 25 years.
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>> as we approach the last jobs number of last year, 2017, our next guest says we're in the
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best jobs market in nearly a quarter century. joining us now tom gimble, ceo of la salle network. give us some of the anecdotal evidence for that, tom, and then, if you could, can you tell us what that means, you know, for 2018 can we continue to add, or are there no workers left, and what it means for wage growth >> well, there's always going to be workers left. there's an acceptable unemployment rate, which is historically been between 2% and 2.5% we've also seen a lack of participation, and we're kind of going through those hurdles right now. yeah, over the past 25 years going back to the dot comboom of the late 1990s when i got into this industry of recruiting and staffing, i have never seen it so good, and you either have temporary staffing that's on an uptick, white collar or blue collar, as well as the search business both are in better plays than i've ever seen i'm not talking about the traditional health care technology, but one of our fastest growing groups right now in the most intake of orders we have from clients is sales
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positions, which say ceos are looking to take advantage of this economy while they can and bring in as many new clients as possible i think there will be continued hiring we'll like the numbers that come through in december. i think we'll see this for the next 18 to 24 months >> is it across the board, tom is it -- i mean, are they selling? are they getting salespeople to sell stuff that we're making here >> all over the country. all over the world it's countries that are international conglomerated, fortune 500 companies, and also small and medium size companies. it's really an interesting thing. what's affecting wage growth is that now small to medium size companies, while there's a lot of hiring going on here, they're also utilizing off shoring companies for a number of skill sets
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>> you are not competing against your neighbor for the job. you are competing around the world for the job. >> the global economy is growing. can you point to anything domestically in terms of regulations? >> absolutely. >> really? >> nlrb. the nlrb, joe. the change in the nlrb what we were going through last year with the overtime exemption change is the one thing of that going from a democratic leader to more of a conservative pro-business on the nlrb has greatly influenced decision making from corporate america that this is a -- not just a less regulated economy going forward or threat of less -- threat of more regulation nonexistent anymore, but also companies know that they can go ahead and keep hiring, and they don't have to worry about affects from the nlrb. i think it's a huge thing that hasn't been talked about >> people forget there were more
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regulations coming that were canceled in addition to some that actually went back and were -- now,you got the energy sector. >> nothing lasts forever however, there's nothing showing us that there's going to be a short-term negative slant on the economy. the jobs market is great if you don't have a job and you are a long-term unemployed, your skills are in this tweaked area that that's where the skills are. when congressman frank was saying about the infrastructure
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passage, there's a new skills gap being created, and that's the blue collar skills gap people that believe they graduated from college and they should be in a white collar desk job and they're not willing to throw a hammer, and now they're the long-term unemployed that's the conflict we'll see kr up in 2018 and 2019. >> would you have rather have a cansian infrastructure plan than a corporate tax cut? >> no, i think this was the right thing at the right time. we've got to get interest rates upation bit more we have then have corrective mechanisms if and when this ends i think you had to do that, and you had to give corporations confidence it's important to have -- can't have your cake and eat it too. it's not possible. >> and you are in this -- you are in a really good mood. you live in illinois >> it's cold here, joe, but like you -- >> you got -- you got some -- it's not exactly a place where jobs are growing like the rest of the -- >> in chicago we say at least
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it's not california from a political climate. i think we've got some advantages we're excited about where things are going, and it's still the heart beat of this country is the jobs market in chicago it's as strong as i've seen it >> great all right. thanks, tom. >> good to be with you >> good to hear about that we'll get a jobs number in about an hour. a little less than an hour actually in a half hour. >> 40 minutes. as joe just alluded to, it is cold out there, and it's 14 grows here in new york, but that does not consider the wind chill. it is cold, cold, cold >> we have a joke. how cold is it if. >> how cold? >> i don't know. >> that's usually the beginning of the day >> people write in give us your jokes it's so cold blah, blah, blah. it's so cold that more than half of the country is in a major cold snap, and it is not leaving any tienl soon why not try to find a warm place to go this weekend the ceo of airfare app hopper will join us after the break to talk predictions and some hot, hot, hot deelds. we'll be right back. i'm a small business, but i have... big dreams... and big plans.
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or a little internet machine?
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it makes you wonder: shouldn't we get our phones and internet from the same company? that's why xfinity mobile comes with your internet. you get up to 5 lines of talk and text at no extra cost. so all you pay for is data. see how much you can save. choose by the gig or unlimited. xfinity mobile. a new kind of network designed to save you money. call, visit, or go to a. >> jetblue airways will give bonuses of $1 ,000 to each of its 21,000 crew members. the company said its ceo and executive vice presidents would not receive the bonus. in a letter to employees jetblue says it believes tax changes will be positive for the company and provide the opportunity to
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do good things for crew members, customers, and shareholders and other airlines have made similar announcements following the passage of the bill. >> go pro is reportedly cutting about 200 to 300 workers at its aerial products unit they say the job cuts are part of a larger restructuring in the company. credit swooes has downgraded nokia to neutral from outperform the firm says despite deals with headset makers, it sees limited opportunities for future revenue growth from nokia's networks business >> joined apple as part of its $3 billion -- 2014 with dr. dre, and this would be questions about what happened to apple music during that period there's been a lot of growth, but also some questions about whether they ultimately need to buy a spotify or get involved
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with somebody else >> all right an update now on the security flaws that have exposed most smartphones and pc's to hackers. intel says it's starting to send out software updates that will make processors immune to the meltdown and to specter vulnerabilities. they hope they have updates ready for 90% of its processor products by the end of next week appear the says the most recent software update prevents users against the meltdown attack, and it will issue a patch to its safari web browser against the specter flaw in the coming days. >> basically means everybody is going to have to download lots of security patches for everything they use. not only for your devices, but then every program that you use on those devices too safari if you are using google chrome
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>> could be for everything >> yeah. >> in a tweet late yesterday spotify announcing you've reached 70 million subscribers for comparison apple said in september that it hit 30 million subscribers to its music service. spotify planning an ipo in the first half of this year. what kind of valuation you put on a company like that some people talking about it being an $18 billion, $20 billion deal very different from the $3 billion that beats was >> that's right. when we come back this morning, the final countdown is on. the december jobs report is just over 30 minutes away our panel of experts is standing by with predictions and reaction to that number right now, though, as we head to a break, let's take a look at the futures this morning they've been sitting at these levels all morning long. even after all the records that have been set in the first three trading days of the year dow futures up by 86 s&p up by 7.5. the nasdaq up by 31. we'll be right back.
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>> breaking news this hour jobs in america. the final employment snap shot of 2017 is just minutes away we'll bring you the numbers and lightning fast analysis. also, what it means for the economy and the fed. plus, the instant market reaction after the dow hits its
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25,000 milestone for the very first time >> i guess our new number is 30,000 >> a special hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ it's the final countdown >> live from the most powerful city in the world, new york. this is "squawk box." >> good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm joe kernan along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin all morning long it's all been sort of leading up to what happens 30 minutes from now with the december jobs report especially given the strong adp number that we had yesterday nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 180,000 following a 228,000 gain in november the unemployment rate is seeing holding at 4.1%. the underlying fundamental snap
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shot that we're going to get comes with the market at more new highs. we've had 7,000 or 8,000 millennial crossings here, and the latest one was yesterday, and it was 25,000, but the futures, once again, indicated higher up. 87 or 88 on the dow. the s&p indicated up 7.5 the nasdaq indicated up 31 nasdaq has been rip roaring from -- since the first of the year treasury yields have backed up slightly at least on the ten-year, but, you know, still not anywhere close to where a lot of people thought they would be with unemployment >> this is a requirement for local companies ahead of an ipo there. that's important because the listing expected this year could
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be the biggest in history raising up to $100 billion, and also raising questions about where it's going to ultimately be the president, of course, tweeting earlier -- i should say earlier. last year that it should be here in the united states the new york stock exchange, the questions about whether -- or whether what will happen locally in saudi arabia. morgan stanley will take a hit in its fourth quarter earnings due to a cut in corporate tax rates. we've seen this a couple of times. according to a filing by the bank this will be offset by 160 million dollars in other positive effects all this really is set up to better earnings in a lower tax rate in the future >> right a big hit. >> you lose some of the tax credits you've been carrying to this point >> all right let's get back to the broader markets. the dow crossing 25,000 for the first time that milestone got president trump's attention yesterday. >> we broke a very, very big barrier. 25,000.
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>> you have always have to be careful. we did, in fact, break 25,000. very substantially break it. very easily. i i guess our new number is 30,000 what it means is every time you see that number go up on wall street, it means jobs, means success, it means 401ks that are flourishing. >> dom has a look at the dow's march to 25,000, and, dom, this has been a very rapid marchl at a high pace. >> rapid march just between the idea that you can go from 20,000 to 25,000 in the span of less than a year has been pretty staggering for a lot of watchers out there, a lot of traders and investors. earlier in the show we told you that about five stocks made up half of the gain of that 5,000 point run. what could propel the next leg hypothetically if the run keeps on going higher?
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well, we take a look at you'll 30 stocks in the dow jones industrial average we looked at the average analyst target price for each of the 30 stocks, and then handicapped them by how much that would translate into dow points. here are the biggest possible contributors to the dow's run if analyst target prices are met. take a look at this. mcdonald's stock, currently an average analyst price of 4% above current level. if that is met, it would add 50 points to the dow overall. not too shabby merck shares, potential upside that could add another 50 points to the dow jones industrial average if those targets come to fruition that could add 123 points. apple stock is currently at 19% potential up side performer per analyst target prices. that would add 130 points.
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these are the biggest contributeors possibly for points, becky, if those target prices are met, but, remember, the biggest price weighted stocks in the dow are the ones that have the most impact for hypothetical instance, becky, if, if, boeing were to go up by 20%, it would add 400 hypothetical points to the dow certain stocks you want to watch there are the ones with the highest prices that's just the way the dow is constructed. back to you. >> i hate to give you a hard time, but i'm going to pick on your logic for how we came up with this screen. >> can i see where you are going with that. the reason we use the target prices is because those target
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prices may take into account potential surprises. when analysts put out a forecast for where they think a stock is going to be, they're looking at the profits that they can make and what the multiples are that are associated with those particular stocks. i think that it might be fairer, becky, to look at those surprises when it comes to things like earnings reports, right? the biggest jumps in stocks happen when earnings expectations may be surpassed. not necessarily a price expectation, but potentially what happens is earnings expectations >> you're right. >> when i look at target prices, we're just saying that these analysts hypothetically or should have looked into all of those variables when they signed a target price to a stock. if they say that a stock was going to go up by maybe x percent over the next 12 or 18 months, we want to say that they're correct. per the average target prices that we have, it might be at least an interesting baseline way to look at where stocks could go in the event those analysts are, in fact, correct by the time those 12 months to
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18 months are done >> it's easier to find the predictions after it happens >> i love monday morning quarterbacking >> we hear you like golf a lot more than quarterbacking that's what we found out in the 6:00 hour. >> you know, it's funny. that conversation led to a text from my wife >> i heard that was funny, though she said she loved that you took -- that was what i liked was she was saying don't try and talk him out of it, right? do it again next year, dom why? you know, absence makes the heart grow fonder. >> i explained to her that you, joe, and whopner were the contributeors to my golf delinquency last year. >> you did get it done last year, dom. i heard the actual number. you are getting it done.
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>> you work hard you should play hard >> i would like to play hard >> it explains your low, low handicap anyway, and that tempo tempo. it's all about -- >> i appreciate the kind words >> we will let you off the hook for the moment >> thank you, becky. not forever. folks, we are counting down to this morning's december jobs report let's get right to our panel this morning joining us right now is from the center on budget and policy priorities, senior fellow jared bernstein. >> jared bernstein we haven't seen him in forever >> hello, jared. >> also, american enterprise resident fellow alex brill and here on set strategist jason jason, i want to start with you. we have seen this incredible march just in the first three trading days of the year is it warranted? what do you think happens next >> i think -- i absolutely think it's warranted i think it might be hard to remember, but profits for the s&p 500 were flat for three
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years. 2014, 2015, 2016 last year profits looked like they were up double digit, and then you have the impact of this tax cuts chrks in my opinion, i'm still kind of amazed at how many people are doubting its potential eficacy, at least in the short-term i can see how you might question what the long-term impact can be, but in the short-term, it seems to me people are overthinking it. interest rates, corporate profits and economic growth are going to go up meaningfully. >> when you say short-term, what is short-term and long-term? >> i would say short-term, it would be somewhere between 18 and 24 months. i this i if you look -- it's always hard to find perfect historical analogs to what's happening today. if you look at 2003, it had a very big impact on economic growth economic growth essentially doubled from two to four ten-year treasury yields went --
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after it was passed. again, there can be a lot of questions about the policy, the normative aspects, but from a market percent pengt, my opinion is that people should not overthink it >> meaning you would not tell people to short this, or you would tell people to be -- >> i think you should be buying it i do think that the focus of the markets change a little more towards value versus growth. i do think growth is going to be less scarce, so some of the tech stocks in my opinion probably won't warrant the types of multiples that you have seen when growth was so difficult to find i do think the more cyclical sectors, candidly like industrials and energy are much more interesting now than they were a couple of months ago. >> all right let's talk some of the economics of all of these things jason just hinted at some of this, but, jared, what do you think about in terms of expectations for growth this year look at the unemployment numbers today. what do you think in a longer term based on what we've seen from the tax plan that was turned into law?
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we could be looking at a 3.5% unemployment rate by the end of this year. ty think if you look at the physical impulse that's a quarter point lower on unemployment, and then if you build in just the positive trend in the labor market, not only are we going to see lower unemployment, but i expect that that's going to finally give wages and maybe prices a bit more of a boost, and that, of course, invokes fed concerns, and we can get into that too >> let's hold that for one thought. one moment i want alex to weigh in on what his growth expectations are for the year >> sure. i share the views that those of you offered. i think there's going tobacco sell rags in 2018 relative to
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what we otherwise would have seen my focus has been more on what it means beyond that 18 to 24 month period i think we're going on see sustained for the next few years uptick in growth. >> you certainly brought up the right point. what happens and what do you expect the fed to do if those growth expectations do come to fruition >> i was moved by the project eks that they released most recently where they forecast that -- their forecast for gdp went up 40 basis points from 2.1% to 2.5%, and, yet, their forecast on interest rates didn't change at all of course, that could change if the acceleration and wages and prices spooks them it sounded to me like they're willing tobacco dative, continuing that the yellen approach and i hope that is true because this is a recovery that
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still hasn't reached every corner of the nation, and i think it should have a chance to do so. >> do you agree with that part of the assessment? >> i think we have seen growth that's reached a lot of the corners of our economy one of the greatest parts of the labor market data that i see in the last year has been the large drop in unemployment rates for those who are less educated. there's a relatively tight labor market for a long time with unemployment rates near 2% it's those with high school or less than high school degrees that had very high unemployment rates and now have the lowest unkbamt rates that they've ever seen around 5% things are pretty good across the spectrum, both geographically and by the education dynamic as well. >> it's the geographics where i would disagree you have to look up not just at the unemployment rate because that leaves out people who aren't participating, and you can find some pockets,
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particularly in some rural and some urban areas, where the recovery just hasn't reached people deeply enough >> okay. you guys -- we'll continue this conversation in a moment, but jason, i want to hear your thoughts on this michelle gerrard was with us earlier, and she said even if we do get four rate hikes this year, she doesn't think it will be an impact for the markets becausure still talking about something that could be absorbed >> well, and you have to look at it in my opinion after you look at the fed funds rate in real terms. you have to look at it relative to the rate of inflation even though there's not a lot of inflation, you still have a negative real fed funds rate which is accommodative it's very hard to get bearish on a market when you have fed policy that's still very, very accommodative. >> it can spike and go a lot quicker than you think
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that's what you have to look out for. for now i wouldn't worry about it i wouldn't worry about the fed >> we will be back with more from our jobs panel in just a few moments. >> coming up, it's jobs friday is it jobs friday? >> it is jobs friday >> we're taking a look at where the jobs are a look at the manufacturing sector that's next. see that's funny, i thought you traded options. i'm not really a wall street guy. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation?
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download the xfinity my account app or go online today. >> we're looking at jobs creation burns harbor, indiana. burns harbor, indiana. there's a focus on manufacturing. is that near -- >> is it lake michigan >>. >> i was wondering if it's near where stranger things happened kate, do you know? >> how far >> joe, i don't know that one. i'm sorry to tell you. i can tell you that since president trump was elected, the economy has added an aj of 174,000 jobs per month, and one beneficiary is steelmaker -- economy is, of course, credit trump's push for deregulation and overhauling the u.s. tax code, but said other fact rz were on the play, including a weaker dollar, a rebound in oil prices, and a stronger global economy.
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>> i will be the greatest jobs president that god ever created. >> when it comes to president trump's job creation success, some sectors faired better than others >> there's only two sect ors where we've seen a stronger pace of job growth post-election than we saw pre-election, and those two sectors are mining in the manufacturing sectors. >> the manufacturing industry that trump promised to revitalize big-time added 171,000 jobs from the election through the end of 2017. >> we were losing 2,000 jobs per month prior to the election, and then post-election we saw the manufacturing sector adding 16,000 jobs per month. >> a weaker dollar and global economic growth are seen as the beggest driving forces along with deregulation and anticipation of changes in tax structure.
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>> indiana has even floated the idea of a tax credits for out of state residents to come here and feel for the manufacturing jobs, and arsellor is planning to hire more than 1,000 new workers in the u.s. this year and many of them will be right here in indiana. joe, back over to you. >> all right, kate it's hawkens hawkins. >> hawkins, indiana. >> hawkins, indiana. >> fictional town. >> hawkins >> is it fictional >> it's fictional. >> wait a minute that whole show was fictional? >> believe it or not, it never happened fictional town fictional county and some of the other things were based on true events. coming up,ing mark zuckerberg's goal for 2018 has some people, well, scratching their heads. we'll explain right after the break. and, of course, we are counting down to the morning's jobs report just a few more minutes to go. we'll have full coverage straight ahead
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>> it's almost time for the big pay roles release. i know what you are thinking where are the tenths of a second we're working on that. it's digitally -- it's difficult. as far as the room we have, accident i requested hundredths
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of a second. try to work with this. it's exactly 6:17 at this point. first of all, we'll get predictions from our panel before we do that. the futures right now up 92. that increasing in strength all morning long
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♪ >> good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site we're just three minutes, very close, to our jobs number. >> how many tenths of a second >> we don't have the clock you are like a cat you no longer notice the final countdown music. you are used to it >> i hate it >> get something new to annoy him. >> we shouldn't even run it anymore if we're not going to get any reaction jared, let's start with you. what's your number, jared? >> 170 on payrolls i think the unemployment rate ticks down to 4% maybe 2.5 wages year-over-year that's what imauto lag at.
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a little below consensus on the pay roles i can explain that. >> i'll help you out a little and finish your sentence just obviously a continuation of the obama economy. alex, what do you have to say? >> i'm on the ear side of that prediction i think that we're going to see about 200,000 jobs this month, and i think we actually might see the unemployment rate tick up one-tenth as people are entering the work force but haven't quite landed a job yet >> jason you have your braces on. >> i have my braces on this is my warmest suit.
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you were high last time, right >> yes, yes. i still believe that if my number is wrong, it's going to be too low i'm going 243,000. i won't make any other predictions on the metric, but i will say i'm pretty positive that people are coming back into the work force, and i think that dynamic is going to prove to be a lingering positive for the rest of the year >> okay, liesman >> 210 >> i got -- that's really what i forecast i make up a number for the government because the government can't count what the government is doing. i have 204 i've been running medium error of 30,000. the participation rate confounds people that have said it's just baby boomers >> people won't work it until you tell me the price they won't work at. you have to know what the wage is >> might come off of those
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40-year lows >> there is definitely as jay powell has said, the incoming fed chairman, there is a pool of workers in the 25 to 54 range that can come back to work >> got to go because we don't have the clock you don't know this, but we're just seconds away from the december jobs report hampton pearson will bring it to us don't mess it up he is at the labor department. >> 148,000 december nonfarm payrolls increase by just 148,000 jobs. the unemployment rate is 4.1%. that 148,000 is below the consensus forecast for 180,000 jobs the net revisions for october and november, a net revision of 9,000 fewer jobs created over the last two months and previously reported. december private sector jobs up
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146,000. 30,000 manufacturing, and 25,000 new workers as well. the same for food services and drinking places. the real story here, job losses in the retail sector the labor force participation rate, 62.7%. basically unchanged. the u6, the so-called real unemployment rate. 8.1% even with this headline number of just 148,000 jobs, the average for the last three months is 204,000 jobs per month. one other interesting demographic story in this particular report, the unemployment rate for african-americans has dropped to 6.8% that's down more than a full percentage point year-over-year. that 6.8% is the lowest since the bls started keeping records
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back in 1972 from inside the labor department, i'm hampton pearson. back to you, guys. >> okay. thank you for that, hampton. want to get right to our panel for some reaction. still with us, jared bernstein, alex bril, steve liesman, and rick santelli. if we were playing "price is right" who is our winner >> jared is. >> nobody. >> nobody. >> no one. >> everybody is over >> i guess jared would win >> jared, the first word >>. >> i did get the walk growth year-over-year corrects, and that's like jason said, that's super important, and it suggests a nonacceleration in the pace of wage growth, which is, of course, relevant to the federal reserve. >> you're right here is there like a bad news-good
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news situation there could be a good news-bad news situation if things were running hot, that might be a problem >> the good news-good news is that we're a long way from good news being bad news. if that makes sense. 2.5% average hourly earnings, you normally don't get yourself into trouble after average hourly earnings are at 4%. that's when the fed tends to get aggressive, and the yield curve -- right now you're in a sweet spot for financial assets. our washington team has counted 85 expects that have announced either bonuses or extra benefits since the tax cut was passed in my opinion, you're going to see a pretty big -- you're likely to start to see an increase in wages pretty soon. >> all right steve. >> i don't see any bad news here look, i had 210. it came in at 148. raising little kids, don't ask them to do things they're not capable of doing the data is not capable of
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coming in prescisely at plus or minus 30,000 the bad news is, like, as i said, adp tends to overstate december, which we know, but you're in this range of you're doing more job growth than you have labor sector growth or, say, for example, population growth that's good. i don't believe, by the way, i've got to tell you -- i don't believe the minus 20,000 on retail >> let me ask you this i was going to ask you -- >> i think there's a problem in data collection. >> i was going to ask you a point of principle does the retail number include things like on-line retailers like amazon. >> there's a huge problem with that i did a story on this, and i called up the bls, and i said do you have a problem with this they said yes. the workers at the am zplon warehouses don't count on retail >> that probably explains a lot. >> that said, they did not show up there's only a 1.8 -- 1,800 increase >> don't they show up --
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>> they don't show up anywhere as far as i can tell >> i thought they showed up in wear housing >> i don't know, jared there's a problem. i called the bls they said they're not counting it in retail it's not necessarily showing up in transportation wear housing it's a funny thing, and we need to get to the bottom of it, but i don't believe -- >> for the record, this is a good jobs report >> you have the big revision on the private sector a small decline in october what did hampton say the three-month average was? up near 210 for the three-month average, and this number could be revised higher in the future. leisure hospitality up 29,000. that's a good number standing out to me is this construction number up 30k the manufacturing number up by 25k. those are good numbers >> did i say something about the labor force participation? it's actually a mistake to keep looking at the lfpr month after month without looking at the
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prime age, 25 to 54, lfpr or even better, the employment rate now, i don't know what it is yet for this month, but that has been on acyclical upturn that's been growing. it's been responding to the tighter job market remember, the overall lfpr has a bunch of old folks like me in it, so people who are hiring out of the job market. if you actually look at the prime age numbers, you see a bit more of the kind of labor supply response that i think both jason and alex referred to >> before we go too far down the rabbit hole, we can get to rick. it looks like the -- some of the interest rates sectors on the move here with some decline in yields what do you see there, and how significant is it? >> modest declines in the mid to long end of the curve. the short end really hasn't budged the dollar index is still down a smidge fed funds, for those that believe you can look that the and draw percentage for a december meeting at the end of this year, which i disagree with, but generically, only call it a half a tick you're not increasing the odds
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as some people calculated for more aggressive fed. i still think that this number -- it's not good. it's not bad to me seasonality adjustments, what steve brought up, you know, policymakers must understand how important this number is to investors, but then again, you know, the way of the world from brick and mortar to the internet, of course, is just donning on that group. at least according to steve's phone call that's scary enough when you think about it i think that the economy is going to run hot all year. i think the big news is going to be jay powell's baptism through economic fire. >> i think that's right. i think that's something to think about how he takes all this stuff you're going to get some stimulus from the tax cut, though, which, by the way, you maybe have jared say it's a kanesian stimulus, and thin maybe you'll get the supply side that will get capital spending that will increase productivity, and that's where the claim may
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or may not be. >> there are some pigs flying around you what did you say about rick? what did you just say? you agree with what rick just said rick is this 2018, is this a resolution >> only the shadow knows >> do you want to change -- maybe you want to change your opinion. i heard jared at the top jared sounded like a republican. >> i did not >> great jobs report >> i sounded like a cansian. >> he resembled that >>. >> look, if you plunk i think 180 billion something like that is the fiscal impulse from the tax cut in 2018. i think it's even larger in 2019 >> this is a testable hypothesis let's see what happens versus the consumer spending numbers. >> is it just cansian, jared
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>> i look at 1.5 trillion over ten years, and all i could think of is 2010-11 whether the budget deficit annually, one year, was about that amount, and the stimulus, of course, of the last president added into that, but we didn't get the same effects then as you are talking about now. >> i'm not sure what to make of that noise, rick my point is -- my point is very simple >> there's more here there is an animal spirits here. >> absolutely. >> it's different. >> we agree. we agree >> we agree with that. my point is very simple. >> cats and dogs >> i'll be back here in a number of months, and we'll check out the investment numbers versus consumer spending. the story that you are telling, and i suspect alex is telling. >> i don't know. you could do it right now, jared. you could being loo look up at d >> could we get a shot of joe kernan's face? the -- >> cats and dogs >> the satisfaction on his face
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when they are fighting back and forth. >> it's weird, though. cats and dogs living together in ghost busters. >> i don't remember cat dog. >> it was a cartoon. he had no rear just heads very -- but they argued a lot. anyway, this is nice >> i just want to get back to the jobs number here >> go ahead. >> and rick kind of quietly dised me in my use of probabilities. >> he did. >> you ignored him, though >> you can't go more than a meeting or two ahead in my opinion. >> rick, i got to make some kind of estimate of the market's calculation of what the fed is going to do down the road. >> oh, no, that's correct. if it goes up or down, it tells you. >> i agree >> yeah. yes. >> i don't know what else to do. >> it's a work in progress until you get within eight weeks of a meeting. it really is just a work in progress >> we need -- >> like any market >> we need a better way to do it, but i just want to turn to
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maybe jason and jared here is and get your sengs this would appear to keep the federal reserve on track for these three rate hikes it doesn't bring a fourth hike into play here if we're requesting toco these 150s, keep the unemployment rate unchanged, i think three is the number -- is the handle on the unemployment rate that spooks the fed into 4s. >> i think that's probably right, and i think jay powell, i don't know the man personally, but i know that -- i don't believe he is an ideologue i think is he going to allow the economy to run a little bit hotter and probably i think as alex maybe pointed out before, i think there is a sebs in which the policy mix in my opinion over the last several years benefitted the wealthiest people disproportionately i think people on the lower end did fine they got better jobs, but they got no wages i think right now the fed doesn't mind if inflation runs a little bit hotter. people get wage gains. i don't think the -- i don't see the fed really getting in the
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way. >> it's a goldilocks scenario. >> i think all that is right, and i predict accommodativeness from our foetd there is a flb here that we haven't been talking about because it's not in the data, and that's inflation of course, if inflation remains and starts moving towards the target, we'll learn things is it a target for jay powell, a ceiling or an average. along with jason and others, i suppose he will accommodate, and it's important for precisely the reason jason said. we need this to reach lower pay work workers in terms of wage growth >> hold on we have not -- we've had a patient gentleman, mr. brill, who has been patiently waiting without nary a word. >> a couple of quick points. one on the retail number which is a bit disappointing from a couple of innocents minutes ago. we had an early thanksgiving, and i think that might have pulled some of the jobs into november we saw an upward revision, in
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fact, in november's number we take that revision and think about the last two months. we really do a strong number today when we look at the revisions in parts i think about the fed, i share the views that yorng this number scares anyone and makes them nebraska want to hike any faers than they otherwise would. they're going to try to err on the side of caution, and the market is expected far more hikes than we've everseen materialize. we've got a lot of pressures in the system that we don't quite understand, and i think are helping to hold down inflation things around technology and the internet and so i think there's going to be a wait and see approach from there. in terms of what jared was saying about -- i think it's a valid concept, but i think he is exaggerating the numbers a little bit i see about $1 00 billion in the calendar year of fiscal stimulus about a $500 billion deficit going probably to $600 billion that's a stimulative number, but it's not an order of magnitude
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that makes me think we're going to see big impacts from that dynamic. >> i got the lowest african-american unemployment rate in the history of the data that i have here >> i noticed that. >> i go back to 1971 why are we going to take away the punch bowl now when we're making real strides in stuff that margs, which is to lower this, not only the unemployment rate but the gap between black and white unemployment >> you think the fed is responsible for that >> i think there's an argument >> you are making an assumption that that pufrm bowl is responsible for the move in that data >> no, he is just saying if you raised rates >> you could stop it from happening. >> it would be better if you raised rates >>, this by the way, is the argument of the fed up, folks,
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and some other folks that are out there saying, you know what, why cut it off let it go. let's -- it's a cheaper way, by the way. if you -- >> of course, that violates both of the fed's mandates. skbro we have stable below target prices. >> jared, that's where i would argue. where you closing in on a full employment i think we're at full employment >> okay. maybe we're at full employment we can argue about that. >> 6.8% and half of the americans are unemployed maybe it's not unemployment. >> maybe they're sitting at home >> you know who benefits most from this part of the recovery it's precisely the workers that steve is talking about it's those in the bottom half of the pay scale. it's minority workers. you know, the idea that there's -- >> jared, i'm just suggesting
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you need unchartered territory, and at a point when weather congress has so many questions, that could certainly raise a lot of questions >> the fed cannot drill down -- >> if we don't see inflationary pressures, either realized or expected, why should they raise more aggressively? >> yeah. just for the record, i do have the lowest gap right now between black and white unemployment than we've had before. >> it's great progress zploorl david blitzer is next. really smart putting apple on the dow. >> bow tie >> he will put the record rally in perspective he has done a great job choosing ayundow stocks st ted "squawk box" will be right back. my experience with usaa has been excellent.
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>> joining us now david blitzer, managing director of s&p dow jones indexes and, chairman of the index committee. still with us is jason it's interesting, david, because you're dow and s&p they're both your children, and you love them both i was going to say after 20 years of hearing about how irrelevant the dow is and it's still all we hear about. you've done a good job in keeping both of them rel skrant. congrats
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this morning on -- there's 1,000 points is not what it used to be >> not at all. >> 1,000 points used to be big stuff. >> thank god it used to take 12 years to move 1,000 points now it takes seven weeks or five weeks or whatever. >> we're constantly going the basis. none of that though can take away from the starting at 18,000 and being at 25,000. i'm not great at math but that's 30 or 40 percentage points if you go back -- that's still a huge move no one expected. >> no -- the dow because of its nature as you know, 30 stocks and then unusual calculation method, which focuses on high priced stocks, gets you this kind of swing and so on. they are both telling us the market has been incredible and keeps getting more incredible. worry about what happens after. >> would you say that the underpinnings -- we've argued that coming off the lows of the financial crisis and you have
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four rounds of qe and zero interest rates, that that's exactly what they wanted to do they wanted to have asset values go up to hopefully improve the underlying economy do you think it's been the bat ton has been passed from the central bankers to the underlying economy now and this is more justified, that's why we're seeing these moves now it's not just free money, anymore? >> i think in the process of passing it off, but while we all love the market, i think the asset values the fed was really interested in was houses the housing part of the country is -- that's where the big damage was in the financial crisis -- >> that would be good. >> houses were number one. we all forget when you buy stocks, 50% leverage is the max and most people don't get close to that. housing -- the leverage ratio in housing is about 120% because that's what you could do in 2006. >> who is coming out now and who's going in next? >> pardon? >> who's coming out of the dow next and who's going in?
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anyone you're looking at thinking you're not representing -- >> you have to ask companies and shrug and say i can't talk about that one you and i don't want to call from the u.s. attorney and sec. >> you know that kind of thing goes on on insider information basis is all of the crypto currencies, which one will go next on coin base or in the index. that's where they are gaming the system. >> is there representation you think is underrepresented in the indexes at this point or overrepresented based on how much activity we've seen with things like technology stocks being up so much last year >> technology stocks, i mean, if i look at the 500 for a moment, technology stocks about 23, 25%. >> the dow. >> the dow i don't know the number off the top of my head and it's sort of skewed. but i think it's less. back in '99, 2000, tech stocks were 33, 34% not itque that extreme
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it was then and may be now a momentum 3w4r57
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. before we go, we could never allow this weekend to come and go without us wishing an early happy birthday to joe. >> oh, no. oh, my goodness. not fair it's not my birthday it's not my birthday. >> tomorrow it is. >> keep the camera on me, please. >> found a way to annoy you.
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>> can i give you the list of birthdays that are also tomorrow. >> the second part, how old are you now? >> it's not good it's better than every year that you hit, every year you hit you go, well, you know, suddenly 70 does not look that bad you see guys like shatener is 85, but i'm just going to tell you who else is doctor eric trump is today -- tomorrow and the mooch -- >> scaramucci. >> henry kraf is and did you find out about -- maybe we don't want to know. >> charlie rose is today. >> it's today. i only know hk and -- >> players born -- >> yeah, and the mooch, yeah. >> we want to thank you. have a wonderful time. thank you, it's the epiphany, too. >> that's right. >> i try to provide one of those
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every day. >> three wisemen, one, two, three. >> wise people. >> quick parting shot. >> i think the big thing this year will be cap ex, the measure of how successful the fiscal system system you list is going to be, whether they use it to invest in companies. thank you for being here have a wonderful weekend, everybody. >> thank you, you can have fun and be safe and -- >> we'll see you back here monday it's time for squt squawk on the street." ♪ >> i'm carl quintanilla, shy of the 190 estimates but futures are firmly in the green. does this led the fed breathe a touch easier the tear continues


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